Grayson County Market Analysis
Grayson County is located north of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex. It has a population of 123,543 per US Census data. The area has experienced a 2.2% population growth since 2010. It has a land area of 932.8 square miles. The county seat of Grayson County, is Sherman, TX. Sherman is located next to the city of Denison and the area is often referred to as the Sherman-Denison market area. Grayson County sits north of Collin County which is a rapidly growing northern suburb of the North Dallas. Grayson county is more rural and less dense. The market is more varied and fluctuating due to the limited number of sales and lower turnover rates.
The chart below takes a look at the Median Sale Price of all sales within Grayson County for the past five years. As you can see the median sale price varies widely each month, however for 2015 the Median Sale Price has risen and is at a steady climb.
This is a different look at the median sale price in Grayson County for each year. as you can see the median sale price for Grayson County has been on a steady climb for the past five years with a 16% increase from 2014 to current.
Now that we have looked at the median sale price data on a per month and per year basis, we decided to look at the difference between the average sale price and the median sale price. If you need a quick refresher at the difference between average (mean) or median please look at Median Vs Average Values in Real Estate. As you can see the average sale price is higher than the median sale price. The higher end of the markets are pulling the average sale prices up. When there are a smaller number of sales, it doesn't take too many million dollar sales to drive the average sale price up. The median values are the middle value and generally show a more realist look at the market.
Another factor in the market that we like to look at are the number of foreclosure sales. The chart below shows a continued decline in the number of foreclosure sales within the past three years. The year 2015 has not yet ended but there currently is a 34% decline in the number of bank owned sales and there was a very large decline from 2013 to 2014 of 40%.
The inventory is also something to analyze in the market as this impacts the supply and demand of real estate. As the number of months of inventory increases this means there is a greater supply and inversely as the number of months of inventory decreases there will be a greater demand. From this chart you can see that the greater number of months of inventory occurred in 2010. The months of inventory for 2015 has been very low. When the demand is strong and the inventory low this will create higher sale prices and bidding wars. This higher price is reflected in the median sale price increases that we are currently seeing.
The final dataset we will look at will be the number of builder sales within Grayson County. Typically when the supply is low, builders have incentive to build. This is exactly what we are seeing Grayson county as the number of builder sales (new construction) has increased within the past two years.
Overall, the Grayson County market is showing signs of improvement in all areas. The median sale price has been on the increase, inventories are low, creating greater demand and an increase in builder sales. The decrease in the number of foreclosure sales is a positive factor in the market as large number of distressed sales will negatively impact markets.
As always, we welcome commentary and questions. You may comment on this blog or contact us at www.dwslaterco.com
Disclaimer: All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. The information is meant entirely for educational purposes and casual reading only and is NOT intended for any other use. This information is NOT intended to support an opinion of value for your appraisal needs or any sort of value conclusion for a loan, litigation, tax appeal or other potential real estate or non real estate purpose. If you’d like to obtain additional information or order an appraisal for your specific needs, please contact us at www.dwslaterco.com.